Long term bets can divide punters. Some like to dive in head first, while others will avoid the unpredictability of long-term wagers. But as with any angle into sports betting, there are ways to make it approachable.
The backbone of looking at long term bets, especially at the fastest withdrawal betting sites, is analysis and looking back at trends from the previous season while blending some current factors that could influence the season ahead.
As with all types of betting there are risks involved in long term wagers. It’s trying to cut through the market noise to get the most out of it.
The Market Whisperer
Listen to what the markets are telling you. If you have seen a pre-season US Open tennis pick that was at 3/1 odds a few weeks ago, but on current viewing has been trimmed to 2/1 then the market is telling you something.
It could be that a main rival for the tournament has reported a slight hamstring problem that they are worried about, or that the draw for the competition has landed very favourably. Sport is in a constant state of flux and the markets will react. Understand why.
The Downside
If you are looking at making a UEFA Champions League winner pick before the season has started, you may have a fair idea of who the main contenders are. The football betting markets will help you figure that out as well.
You may be able to narrow the field down to four or five teams out of the 32 that start the group stage. But there is still a huge amount of unpredictability to come over the long months. Massive influencing factors like managerial changes, injuries and a lack of form can change things up.
Even for something like a pre-tournament pick on the winner of a golf tournament, a lot can happen over four days of action. The same is for something like selecting the winner of Wimbledon, that’s two weeks of tennis, where fixture scheduling and injury can throw a spanner in the works of a long-term selection.
The Upside
The upside of course to long term bets is that they bring some attractive odds to punters. You can see leading contenders for a golf Major close to a double-figures quote, or a pre-season pick on a leading contender to win the Championship around the same. The longer odds are appealing, but that’s because of the increased risk.
Map Things Out
A good plan of attack for long-term bets is to try and map things out as much as possible. If you are looking at the FIFA World Cup for example, plot the most likely scripts well ahead of time. Do the same again a little closer to the start of the tournament to see if anything has changed. The point of this is to cut down on any high-risk decisions.
Stick to Convictions and Predictions
An important thing for picking a long-term bet is sticking to your early convictions. You will have arrived at a conclusion and a certain selection for a reason. The data from your analysis will have created that decision.
Once settled after doing research, don’t be swayed by a sensationalist headline on a sports news page. The point here is to be rational and pragmatic enough to question a selection from all angles, then no external stimuli should pull you away from that.
Be Adaptable
There is a little caveat to the above. That’s getting ready to change the layout of your betting plan at a later date, but again, based on your own research and stats. If you have made a pre-season selection on the next Serie A winner, but a quarter of the way through the season the team are floundering in mid-table, see if there is a way to mitigate some of the loss by hedging some other options from the current state of play in the same market.
In Conclusion
Long term bets are part and parcel of sports betting. As with any type of betting there is an adjustment and learning curve. Just settle in for the long haul.
